We would love to give you an exact statistical answer to this most asked question but the truth is that we simlply cannot say. The Northern Lights are Mother Nature's creation and as such we can't even use historical data to predict how likely you are to witness a display. The Sun's activity varies, cloud cover varies, solar winds vary and these and other factors can all influence the likelihood of seeing the Aurora. Indeed, accurately predicting an Auroral display is only possible a few hours at best before it happens because the interaction of solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field is crucial. So, while we may know that the Sun has thrown a Coronal Mass Ejection our way, we don't know how it will react when it reaches us. What we do at The Aurora Zone is seek to maximise.... Hence, if they don't appear before we return you to your warm accommodation, you may wish to stay out longer...